Helmut_K asks:
How many fatalities will be caused by commercial aviation accidents worldwide in 2025, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA)?
Closing Jan 01, 2026 08:01AM UTC
The commercial aviation industry has been trending toward greater safety in recent years, despite a number of high-profile incidents in 2024 (CNN, MSN [Bloomberg]). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using IATA's Annual Safety Report for 2025 as first released, expected to be published in early 2026 (IATA Annual Safety Report). In 2023, there was one fatal accident with 72 fatalities (IATA Annual Safety Report 2023, see Executive Summary, IATA - Press Release 28 February 2024).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Zero | 3.70% | +0.80% |
| Between 1 and 10 | 1.70% | +0.40% |
| Between 11 and 50 | 7.20% | +0.80% |
| Between 51 and 100 | 21.40% | -0.40% |
| Between 101 and 200 | 32.00% | -2.00% |
| Between 201 and 500 | 29.70% | -1.80% |
| More than 500 | 4.30% | +2.20% |