When will the Palisades Fire in California be 100% contained?
Started
Jan 13, 2025 04:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 24, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Closing Feb 24, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges
Tags
The Palisades Fire in Los Angeles County has already destroyed thousands of homes and 17% contained as of 6:00AM PT on 13 January 2025 (City of Malibu - Palisades Fire, Cal Fire - Palisades Fire Update 13 January 2025, Yahoo [Fox 5 San Diego]). The outcome will be determined using information reported by Cal Fire (CA Fire - Palisades Fire).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Before 20 January 2025 | 13.85% | -4.78% |
| Between 20 January 2025 and 26 January 2025 | 34.04% | -3.02% |
| Between 27 January 2025 and 2 February 2025 | 21.08% | +1.02% |
| Between 3 February 2025 and 9 February 2025 | 13.58% | +2.70% |
| Between 10 February 2025 and 16 February 2025 | 11.15% | +4.34% |
| Between 17 February 2025 and 23 February 2025 | 4.96% | +0.15% |
| Not before 24 February 2025 | 1.35% | -0.40% |