Which film will win the 2025 Oscar for Best Original Screenplay?
Started
Jan 23, 2025 05:00PM
Closed Mar 2, 2025 08:01AM (12 days ago)
Closed Mar 2, 2025 08:01AM (12 days ago)
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The 97th Academy Awards, known as the Oscars, are scheduled for 2 March 2025 (Oscars, NPR). In the event of a tie, the film with the higher box office total through and including 2 March 2025 according to Box Office Mojo would be deemed the winner.
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The question closed "Anora (Sean Baker)" with a closing date of 2 March 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Anora (Sean Baker) | 79% | |
| The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold) | 2% | |
| A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg) | 7% | |
| September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum; Alex David) | 0% | |
| The Substance (Coralie Fargeat) | 12% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 24 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 127 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 97 |
| Average for questions in their first 3 months: 293 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 30, 2025 6:41PM PST (31 days before close, question was 18% complete)