The Economist asks:

How many Registered Syrian Refugees will be in Turkey (aka Türkiye) as of 4 September 2025?

Started Jan 24, 2025 06:00PM
Closing Sep 4, 2025 07:01AM (in 7 months)

After the fall of the Assad regime in Syria, there is a question of when and at what pace the approximately three million refugees in Turkey may return home (Economist, AP, The Globalist). The question will be suspended on 3 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) for "Registered Syrian Refugees" on its "Syria Regional Refugee Response" page for Turkey (UNHCR). As of 31 December 2024, a total of 2,901,478 registered Syrian refugees were in Turkey. If data for 4 September 2025 are not available, the total for the first date thereafter will be used for resolution.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Fewer than 600,000 3.00% 0% 0%
At least 600,000, but fewer than 900,000 2.00% 0% 0%
At least 900,000, but fewer than 1.2 million 2.00% 0% 0%
At least 1.2 million, but fewer than 1.5 million 2.00% -1.00% 0%
At least 1.5 million, but fewer than 1.8 million 5.00% 0% +1.00%
At least 1.8 million, but fewer than 2.1 million 14.00% 0% +2.00%
At least 2.1 million, but fewer than 2.4 million 28.00% 0% +3.00%
At least 2.4 million, but fewer than 2.7 million 33.00% +2.00% -2.00%
At least 2.7 million, but fewer than 3.0 million 9.00% 0% -4.00%
At least 3.0 million, but fewer than 3.3 million 1.00% -1.00% -1.00%
3.3 million or more 1.00% 0% +1.00%

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