Between 1 January 2025 and 30 June 2025, how many total fatalities will occur in Myanmar due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
Myanmar has been gripped by civil war since its most recent military coup in 2021, with China playing a growing role in the conflict (Deutsche Welle, ABC Australia, AP, War on the Rocks). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select only "Asia-Pacific," (5) select only "Myanmar," (6) select "No," (7) select "Country," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 10,297 total fatalities in Myanmar in the first half (1 January through 30 June) of 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 17 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 3,500 | 11.00% | -2.00% |
| At least 3,500, but fewer than 5,000 | 13.70% | +4.70% |
| At least 5,000, but fewer than 6,500 | 15.80% | +0.80% |
| At least 6,500, but fewer than 8,000 | 26.20% | -3.80% |
| At least 8,000, but fewer than 9,500 | 14.30% | -1.70% |
| At least 9,500, but fewer than 11,000 | 11.40% | +0.40% |
| At least 11,000, but fewer than 12,500 | 4.40% | +1.40% |
| At least 12,500, but fewer than 14,500 | 1.60% | +0.60% |
| At least 14,500, but fewer than 16,500 | 0.90% | -0.10% |
| 16,500 or more | 0.70% | -0.30% |