Between 1 January 2025 and 30 June 2025, how many total fatalities will occur in Sudan due to conflicts and protests, according to ACLED?
Closing Jul 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC
In April 2023, fighting erupted between the When will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for control of the country, and fighting has continued ever since (Council on Foreign Relations, UN News, Guardian, BBC). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Explorer (ACLED). On the left side of the screen, (1) select "Fatality Counts," (2) select "All Event Types," (3) select "Custom Date Range" and set the date range as appropriate, (4) select only "Africa," (5) select only "Sudan," (6) select "No," (7) select "Country," (8) select "No," (9) select "No," (10) select "Yes" and choose "Month," and click "Run Calculations." As of the launch of this question, ACLED reported 9,863 total fatalities in Sudan in the second half (1 July through 31 December) of 2024. Data will be accessed for resolution no sooner than 17 July 2025.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 5,000 | 12.50% | -3.50% |
| At least 5,000, but fewer than 7,000 | 25.70% | -0.50% |
| At least 7,000, but fewer than 9,000 | 21.20% | -1.00% |
| At least 9,000, but fewer than 11,000 | 22.30% | +5.00% |
| At least 11,000, but fewer than 13,000 | 10.80% | +1.50% |
| At least 13,000, but fewer than 15,000 | 5.00% | -0.50% |
| At least 15,000, but fewer than 17,000 | 1.50% | -0.50% |
| 17,000 or more | 1.00% | -0.50% |