When will the Reform UK Party poll higher than the Labour Party in the United Kingdom, according to Politico?

Started Jan 24, 2025 06:00PM
Closed Feb 5, 2025 03:00PM (14 days ago)

Reform UK, a political party led by pro-Brexit politician Nigel Farage, is challenging the political establishment in the UK with growing support (Independent, MSN [Daily Mail]). The question will be suspended on 14 August 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by Politico's Poll of Polls (Politico, set date range to "6 MONTHS" and click "KALMAN" above the right side of the chart under the "United Kingdom — 2024 election results" graphics). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data through and including 14 August 2025 are first reported, if necessary. The percentage numbers displayed will control, irrespective of the line sequence on the chart. Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial. If the Reform UK Party merges with another party, the polling for the merged party will count.

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The question closed "Before 4 April 2025" with a closing date of 5 February 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 4 April 2025 89%
Between 4 April 2025 and 12 June 2025 2%
Between 13 June 2025 and 21 August 2025 2%
Not before 22 August 2025 7%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 27
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 91
Number of Forecasts 78
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 161
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.500708
2.
-0.436764
3.
-0.335669
4.
-0.278781
5.
-0.252958

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 27, 2025 12:51PM PST (9 days before close, question was 25% complete)
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