When will the Reform UK Party poll higher than the Labour Party in the United Kingdom, according to Politico?
Closed Feb 5, 2025 03:00PM (14 days ago)
Reform UK, a political party led by pro-Brexit politician Nigel Farage, is challenging the political establishment in the UK with growing support (Independent, MSN [Daily Mail]). The question will be suspended on 14 August 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as reported by Politico's Poll of Polls (Politico, set date range to "6 MONTHS" and click "KALMAN" above the right side of the chart under the "United Kingdom — 2024 election results" graphics). Chart data will be accessed for resolution as soon as data through and including 14 August 2025 are first reported, if necessary. The percentage numbers displayed will control, irrespective of the line sequence on the chart. Whether elections are called early and/or take place during the question's open period is immaterial. If the Reform UK Party merges with another party, the polling for the merged party will count.
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The question closed "Before 4 April 2025" with a closing date of 5 February 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Before 4 April 2025 | 89% | |
Between 4 April 2025 and 12 June 2025 | 2% | |
Between 13 June 2025 and 21 August 2025 | 2% | |
Not before 22 August 2025 | 7% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 27 |
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 91 | |
Number of Forecasts | 78 |
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 161 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |