As of close of business on 6 March 2025, will the most recently announced European Central Bank (ECB) "Deposit facility" interest rate be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 30 January 2025?

Started Jan 24, 2025 06:00PM
Closed Mar 6, 2025 08:01AM (a month ago)

The ECB's "Deposit facility" is the rate that banks may use to make overnight deposits with the Eurosystem at a pre-set interest rate (ECB - Key Interest Rates). As of the launch of this question, the Governing Council of the ECB's March 2025 monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 5-6 March 2025, and its most recently announced Deposit facility rate was 3.00% (ECB - Calendar, ECB - Monetary Policy Decisions December 2024, ECB - Key Interest Rates). If the ECB announces a range, the question will close using the midpoint of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 2.00% and 2.25% would close based on 2.125%). The date the change will take effect is immaterial (ECB interest rate changes generally do not take effect for approximately a week from an announced change).

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The question closed "Lower" with a closing date of 6 March 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower 96%
Same 3%
Higher 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 126
Number of Forecasts 38
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 289
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.096776
2.
-0.07679
3.
-0.074649
4.
-0.062098
5.
-0.061171

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Jan 24, 2025 5:46PM PST (41 days before close, question was 0% complete)
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