How many cases of measles will the CDC report for 2025?
Closing Jan 1, 2026 08:01AM (in 10 months)
While cases of measles in the US have remained relatively low in recent years as compared to the mid-20th Century, outbreaks are possible and concerns over falling vaccination rates have caught the attention of public health officials (AP, CNN). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data as provided by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) when first available for all of 2025 (CDC - Measles). Annual cases of measles in the US last reached 1,500 in 1992 at 2,126. If cases reach 1,500, data from the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) will be used to ascertain when the threshold was reached (CDC Stacks).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
---|---|---|---|---|
Fewer than 500 | 5.00% | -0.75% | -8.00% | -39.00% |
At least 500, but fewer than 1,000 | 38.00% | -0.42% | +1.55% | +16.00% |
At least 1,000, but fewer than 1,500 | 35.00% | +0.42% | +8.27% | +25.00% |
1,500 or more | 22.00% | +0.75% | -1.82% | -2.00% |