Will any NATO member invoke Article 4 or Article 5 before 1 January 2018?
Started
Feb 14, 2017 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC
Article 4 was invoked by Turkey in 2015 in response to developments in Syria and by Poland in 2014 in response to developments in Ukraine (Economist, NATO, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty). Article 5 has been invoked once, by the United States in response to a terrorist attack in 2001 (NATO).
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If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether India will sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the U.S. before 2018 or on whether the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA before 30 April 2017."
No NATO member invoked Article 4 or Article 5. This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
If you liked this question, you might also enjoy forecasting on whether India will sign either of the two remaining defense foundational agreements with the U.S. before 2018 or on whether the U.S. provide notice of intent to withdraw from NAFTA before 30 April 2017."
No NATO member invoked Article 4 or Article 5. This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | |
| No | 100.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 268 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1336 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
