When will Ukrainian regular ground armed forces cease to be in the internationally recognized territory of Russia?

Started Feb 21, 2025 06:00PM
Closing Nov 20, 2025 08:01AM (in 8 months)

Ukrainian forces invaded Russia's Kursk region in August 2024 and remain there as of 20 February 2025 (Newsweek, BBC, ISW - Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment 18 February 2025). For the purposes of this question, "regular" ground armed forces would include military forces not considered Special Forces (Britannica - Special Forces). Whether Ukrainian regular forces have left Russia will be determined using open-source reporting and information published by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). An official announcement from the Ukrainian government that its regular forces have left Russia will count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week
Before 22 May 2025 82.00% 0% +54.62%
Between 22 May 2025 and 20 August 2025 6.00% 0% -29.44%
Between 21 August 2025 and 19 November 2025 4.00% 0% -16.25%
Not before 20 November 2025 8.00% 0% -8.94%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username