erikbays asks:
What will happen next in 2025 with regard to the 12-month percentage change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) Less Food and Energy (aka "Core")?
Closing Jan 1, 2026 08:01AM (in 9 months)
While the US inflation rate has come down from its peak in 2022, inflation remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target (CNBC, UPI, Investopedia - Core Inflation). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using 12-month percentage change data as first released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for "All Items Less Food and Energy" as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Percent Change from Year Ago," and hover your cursor over the chart for data). The data for a month as first reported will count, and subsequent revisions to past months are immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the Core CPI for December 2024 was 3.21361%.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The annual percentage change in Core CPI will be reported as 2.5000% or lower | 18.86% | -0.14% | -0.07% | -2.77% |
| The annual percentage change in Core CPI will be reported as 4.1000% or higher | 24.14% | +1.14% | -0.36% | -15.11% |
| Neither will occur for a month in 2025 | 57.00% | -1.00% | +0.43% | +17.87% |