What will be the lowest reported Arctic sea ice extent in 2025 as of 3 October 2025?
Closing Oct 3, 2025 07:01AM (in 6 months)
Arctic sea ice extent, a measure of the ocean area in the northern hemisphere that is at least 15% sea ice, has trended down in past decades (BBC). The question will be suspended on 2 October 2025 and the outcome determined using graph data as provided by the National Snow & Ice Data Center's (NSIDC's) "Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph" at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 October 2025 (Charctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph, click "Arctic" on the left side above the graph, NSIDC - About Charctic Data). The question will close as of the date of the lowest reported Arctic sea ice extent (the most recent if there is a tie for the lowest extent). Other site data are immaterial. As of the launch of this question, the lowest daily reported Arctic sea ice extent in 2024 was 4.280 million sq. km on 11 September.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.0 million sq. km | 3.40% | 0% | +0.10% | +1.50% |
| At least 3.0 million sq. km, but less than 3.4 million sq. km | 7.10% | +0.20% | +0.20% | +1.40% |
| At least 3.4 million sq. km, but less than 3.8 million sq. km | 16.20% | +0.40% | +0.70% | +3.80% |
| At least 3.8 million sq. km, but less than 4.2 million sq. km | 28.20% | -0.20% | +0.30% | +4.30% |
| At least 4.2 million sq. km, but less than 4.6 million sq. km | 31.80% | +0.10% | -0.60% | -12.70% |
| At least 4.6 million sq. km, but less than 5.0 million sq. km | 11.50% | -0.30% | -0.40% | +1.50% |
| At least 5.0 million sq. km, but less than 5.4 million sq. km | 1.20% | -0.20% | -0.30% | -0.10% |
| 5.4 million sq. km or more | 0.60% | 0% | 0% | +0.30% |