What will be the average monthly change in US total nonfarm private payrolls in the second quarter of 2025, according to ADP?
Closing Jul 1, 2025 07:01AM (in 3 months)
The US private sector has continued to create jobs into 2025 (CNBC, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2025 and the outcome determined using data from the firm Automatic Data Processing (ADP) as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once data for June 2025 are first reported (FRED, click "Edit Graph" and change "Units" to "Change, Persons"). As of the launch of this question, the average monthly change in US total nonfarm private payrolls in the second quarter of 2024 was 137,666.7 [(113,000+164,000+136,000)/3].
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than -50,000 | 4.63% | +0.07% | -0.37% | +0.73% |
| At least -50,000, but lower than 0 | 6.88% | +0.13% | +0.88% | +4.78% |
| At least 0, but lower than 50,000 | 14.19% | +0.19% | +1.19% | +10.29% |
| At least 50,000, but lower than 100,000 | 33.75% | 0% | +6.75% | +16.35% |
| At least 100,000, but lower than 150,000 | 33.69% | 0% | -4.31% | -21.31% |
| At least 150,000, but lower than 200,000 | 5.13% | -0.18% | -2.87% | -9.07% |
| At least 200,000, but lower than 250,000 | 1.13% | -0.18% | -0.87% | -1.37% |
| 250,000 or more | 0.63% | 0% | -0.37% | -0.37% |