Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Muhammad Yunus flee Bangladesh or cease to be its head of government before 1 July 2025?

Started Feb 28, 2025 03:00PM
Closing Jul 1, 2025 07:01AM (in 3 months)

After widespread protests in the summer of 2024 led to the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus was sworn in as "Chief Advisor" to head an interim government that would transition Bangladesh to constitutional, democratic governance (Al Jazeera, MSN [Reuters]). If Yunus (while head of government) flees Bangladesh, he will be deemed to have ceased to be the head of government, and whether he has fled Bangladesh will be determined using credible, open-source reporting.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 22.20% -1.30% -0.30% -27.80%
No 77.80% +1.30% +0.30% +27.80%

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