How many civilian federal employees, excluding the US Postal Service, will there be in the US in December 2025?
Closing Jan 1, 2026 08:01AM (in 9 months)
As part of the Trump administration's efforts to cut federal spending, the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has been directing efforts to reduce the size of the federal workforce (CNN, NBC News, Congressional Research Service). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database, expected in January 2026 (FRED). As of the launch of this question, BLS reported a total of 2,415.8 thousand civilian federal employees excluding the US Postal Service, or 2.4158 million.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 1.825 million | 1.00% | 0% | 0% | -1.90% |
| At least 1.825 million, but fewer than 1.900 million | 2.00% | +1.00% | +1.00% | -1.60% |
| At least 1.900 million, but fewer than 1.975 million | 3.00% | +1.00% | +1.00% | -3.90% |
| At least 1.975 million, but fewer than 2.050 million | 6.00% | +2.00% | +2.00% | -7.80% |
| At least 2.050 million, but fewer than 2.125 million | 10.00% | +2.00% | +1.00% | -1.30% |
| At least 2.125 million, but fewer than 2.200 million | 17.00% | 0% | 0% | +4.70% |
| At least 2.200 million, but fewer than 2.275 million | 38.00% | -1.00% | +2.00% | +21.30% |
| At least 2.275 million, but fewer than 2.350 million | 17.00% | -4.00% | -5.00% | -1.50% |
| At least 2.350 million, but fewer than 2.425 million | 6.00% | -1.00% | -2.00% | -6.10% |
| At least 2.425 million, but fewer than 2.500 million | 0% | 0% | 0% | -1.70% |
| 2.500 million or more | 0% | 0% | 0% | -0.20% |