Before 1 January 2026, will US federal legislation setting a maximum state and local tax (SALT) deduction for individuals for 2026 become law?
Started
Mar 14, 2025 05:00PM
Closing Jan 1, 2026 08:01AM (in 9 months)
Closing Jan 1, 2026 08:01AM (in 9 months)
Challenges
As of 14 March 2025, the maximum SALT deduction for individuals was $10,000 as set by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), but that limit is scheduled to expire on 31 December 2025 (Tax Foundation - SALT Deduction, 26 USC §164). President Trump and Congress are working to extend various provisions of the TCJA (AP). If the TCJA expires without being replaced and no other changes are made, there will be no maximum SALT deduction for 2026 (Forvis Mazars).
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, a deduction of $5,000 or less | 4.00% | 0% | +1.00% |
| Yes, a deduction of more than $5,000, but at most $10,000 | 22.30% | -4.50% | -3.00% |
| Yes, a deduction of more than $10,000, but at most $15,000 | 8.20% | -2.20% | -0.60% |
| Yes, a deduction of more than $15,000, but at most $20,000 | 7.60% | -0.80% | -0.20% |
| Yes, a deduction of more than $20,000, but finite | 10.20% | +5.40% | +6.30% |
| No | 47.70% | +2.10% | -3.50% |