Before 1 January 2026, will US federal legislation exempting reported qualified "tips" from income taxes for 2026 become law?
Closing Jan 1, 2026 08:01AM (in 9 months)
During the 2024 presidential campaign, Donald Trump pitched the idea of exempting tips from federal income taxes (Fox 4, Sen. Ted Cruz, Congress.gov - HB 482). The inclusion or exclusion of federal payroll taxes will be immaterial (ADP). For the purposes of this question, the current limit of when tips do not need to be reported (less than $20 with a single employer in a calendar month) is immaterial (IRS.gov - Tip Recordkeeping and Reporting). The highest potential maximum exemption for an individual with a single employer will be used for resolution.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| No | 61.00% | 0% | -0.90% |
| Yes, exempting up to and including $10,000 | 32.00% | +0.50% | +1.60% |
| Yes, exempting more than $10,000, but less than $25,000 | 4.40% | -0.50% | -0.40% |
| Yes, exempting $25,000 or more | 2.60% | 0% | -0.30% |