What will be total value of US exports in goods to Canada in the second and third quarters (Q2+Q3) in 2025?
Closing Oct 1, 2025 07:01AM (in 6 months)
Trade tensions between the US and Canada exploded in March 2025, with the Trump administration imposing broad tariffs on Canada and Canada responding in kind (AP, NBC News, CNN). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data for Q2+Q3 2025 as of the first release of September 2025 data on the Census Bureau's "Trade in Goods with Canada" page, expected in November 2025 (Census.gov - Trade in Goods with Canada, Census Bureau - Foreign Trade Release Schedule). As of the launch of this question, the Census Bureau reported a total of $177,933.6 million, or $177.9336 billion, in goods exported from the US to Canada from April through September 2024.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
NOTE 15 March 2025: There was an inconsistency in the question. The question is concerned with the second and third quarters of 2025 (i.e., April through September 2025). Also, the figure for 2024 was in error and has now been updated.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $140 billion | 33.60% | 0% | 0% |
| At least $140 billion, but less than $152 billion | 11.70% | 0% | 0% |
| At least $152 billion, but less than $164 billion | 20.70% | 0% | 0% |
| At least $164 billion, but less than $176 billion | 22.60% | 0% | 0% |
| At least $176 billion, but less than $188 billion | 9.60% | 0% | 0% |
| At least $188 billion, but less than $200 billion | 0.80% | 0% | 0% |
| At least $200 billion, but less than $212 billion | 0.50% | 0% | 0% |
| $212 billion or more | 0.50% | 0% | 0% |