What will be the Federal Reserve's median projection for the federal funds rate for 2025 in its June 2025 projection materials?
Closing Jun 18, 2025 07:01AM (in 3 months)
In the Federal Reserve's projection materials released on 19 March 2025, the median projection for the federal funds rate for 2025 (specifically, "value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year") was 3.9%, unchanged from the 3.9% projection released in December 2024 (Federal Reserve - FOMC Projection Materials March 2025, see "Table 1," Yahoo). The question will be suspended on 17 June 2025 and the outcome determined using the next projection materials released by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), expected on the second day of its two-day meeting scheduled for 17-18 June 2025 (Federal Reserve).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lower than 3.5% | 2.90% | -1.70% | -10.10% |
| At least 3.6%, but less than 3.9% | 19.90% | -4.40% | -8.60% |
| 3.9% | 53.30% | -1.80% | +20.30% |
| Higher than 3.9%, but at most 4.2% | 7.70% | -2.70% | -10.30% |
| Higher than 4.2% | 16.20% | +10.60% | +8.70% |