What will be the mean (average) US higher unemployment expectations for one year in the future as of November 2025, according to the NY Fed?
Closing Dec 1, 2025 08:01AM (in 8 months)
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (NY Fed) conducts the Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) each month to measure US consumer expectations on a variety of matters, including commodity prices, unemployment, and credit access (NY Fed). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the NY Fed (NY Fed - Unemployment Expectations). In the event of ambiguity due to rounding on the chart, downloaded data will be used for resolution (click "DOWNLOADS" button for options, click "Chart Data [EXCEL]," and see the “Unemployment Expectations” tab). In November 2024, the average probability that the unemployment rate will be higher in one year was 35.0%.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 30.0% | 0.89% | 0% | -13.40% |
| At least 30.0%, but less than 35.0% | 5.44% | 0% | -8.85% |
| At least 35.0%, but less than 40.0% | 20.22% | 0% | +5.93% |
| At least 40.0%, but less than 45.0% | 45.33% | 0% | +31.04% |
| At least 45.0%, but less than 50.0% | 15.67% | 0% | +1.38% |
| At least 50.0%, but less than 55.0% | 8.56% | 0% | -5.73% |
| 55.0% or more | 3.89% | 0% | -10.40% |