At close of business on 17 June 2025, will the most recently announced Bank of Japan (BOJ) "uncollateralized overnight call [interest] rate" be lower, the same, or higher than it was at close of business on 1 May 2025?

Started Mar 28, 2025 05:00PM
Closing Jun 17, 2025 07:01AM (in 2 months)

As of the launch of this question, the BOJ's June 2025 monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 16-17 June 2025, and its most recently announced uncollateralized overnight call rate was "around 0.5 percent" (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy 19 March 2025, Bank of Japan - Monetary Policy Meeting Schedule, see links under "Date of MPM"). If the BOJ announces a range, the question will close using the midpoint of the stated range (e.g., an announced range of 0.0% and 0.1% would close based on 0.05%). Qualified statements on the interest rate (e.g., "around 0.25%") will count as though the statement were unqualified (i.e., "around 0.25%" will be treated simply as "0.25%"). Please note that in most 2024 statements, the BOJ explicitly referred to the "uncollateralized overnight call rate." However, this was referred to as the "short-term policy interest rate" as recently as its statement dated 23 January 2024 (Bank of Japan - Statement of Monetary Policy 23 January 2024). The date the change will take effect is immaterial.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours
Lower 2.00% -0.40%
Same 94.00% +0.80%
Higher 4.00% -0.40%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username