When will US total nonfarm private payrolls next decrease in a given month as compared to the preceding month, according to ADP?
Started
Apr 4, 2025 05:00PM
Closing Jan 1, 2026 08:01AM (in 9 months)
Closing Jan 1, 2026 08:01AM (in 9 months)
Challenges
The US private sector has continued to create jobs amid various economic headwinds (CNBC, Investopedia - ADP). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 if still open and the outcome determined using data from the firm Automatic Data Processing (ADP) as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED, click "EDIT GRAPH" and change "Units" to "Change, Persons"). Subsequent revisions will be immaterial.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Between April 2025 and June 2025 | 55.50% | +0.50% | +37.83% |
| Between July 2025 and September 2025 | 24.90% | -0.50% | +11.90% |
| Between October 2025 and December 2025 | 14.60% | 0% | -29.73% |
| Not before January 2026 | 5.00% | 0% | -20.00% |