When will the US announce a reduction in the "reciprocal tariff" rate for goods imported from Vietnam?

Started Apr 4, 2025 05:00PM
Closed Apr 9, 2025 05:30PM (3 days ago)

On 2 April 2025, President Donald Trump announced a series of "reciprocal tariffs" on the US' largest trading partners, including Vietnam at 46% (CBS News, CNBC, White House - Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order, White House - Reciprocal Tariff Executive Order Annex I). The question will close upon an announcement from the US administration explicitly stating that the US has or will reduce the reciprocal tariff rate imposed on Vietnam. The date the change would take effect is immaterial, but the announcement must explicitly state the new, lower tariff rate and specify when the new, lower tariff rate will take effect. Exemptions for specific classes of goods alone will not count. If the US announces an increase in the "reciprocal tariff" rate, a subsequent announcement of a reduction must bring the rate down to a level below the 46% announced on 2 April 2025. An announced delay or suspension in the implementation of a 46% "reciprocal tariff" will count.

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The question closed "Before 3 May 2025" with a closing date of 9 April 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 3 May 2025 48%
Between 3 May 2025 and 27 June 2025 25%
Between 28 June 2025 and 26 September 2025 12%
Not before 27 September 2025 15%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 36
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 89
Number of Forecasts 60
Average for questions in their first 4 weeks: 157
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.26418
2.
-0.254247
3.
-0.237513
4.
-0.195513
5.
-0.19018

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Apr 4, 2025 10:19AM PDT (5 days before close, question was 0% complete)
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