The US Senate voted 51-48 on 2 April 2025 to pass a joint resolution that would terminate the national emergency declared by President Trump to impose tariffs on Canada over illicit drug trafficking (Senate Joint Resolution 37, Newsweek, Executive Order 14193). The next day, Rep. Gregory Meeks announced that he was introducing a discharge petition to try and force a vote on the measure (House Foreign Affairs Committee, CBS News). If the president terminates the declared national emergency before a pertinent full House vote without immediately replacing it with a declaration with the same effect of enabling tariff imposition on Canada, the question will close "No."

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.