Autocorrelation asks:
What will be the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index value for the Atlantic basin in 2025, according to Colorado State University's Department of Atmospheric Science?
Closing Dec 1, 2025 08:01AM (in 7 months)
The ACE index is a measure of tropical cyclone activity (NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Severe Weather Europe). Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have predicted that the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from 1 June 2025 to 30 November 2025, "will have above-normal activity," with ACE forecasted at 155 (CBS News, CSU - 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast). The question will be suspended on 30 November 2025 and the outcome determined using data provided by CSU through and including 30 November 2025 (CSU - North Atlantic Ocean Statistics, set "TC METRIC" to "Accumulated Cyclone Energy", CSU - Real-Time Global Tropical Cyclone Activity). As of the launch of this question, CSU reported the ACE index value for 2024 as 161.6.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than 100.0 | 2.50% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 100.0, but less than 120.0 | 9.00% | +0.20% | +0.20% |
| At least 120.0, but less than 140.0 | 19.90% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 140.0, but less than 160.0 | 29.30% | 0% | 0% |
| At least 160.0, but less than 180.0 | 21.50% | +0.40% | +0.40% |
| At least 180.0, but less than 200.0 | 10.60% | -0.30% | -0.30% |
| At least 200.0, but less than 220.0 | 4.50% | -0.30% | -0.30% |
| 220.0 or more | 2.70% | 0% | 0% |