What will be the total amount in customs duties collected by the US in the third quarter (July, August, and September) of 2025?

Started Apr 11, 2025 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

The Trump administration has imposed sweeping tariffs on various US trading partners (BBC, Tax Foundation). Customs duties are tariffs or taxes imposed on goods when transported across international borders (US Customs and Border Patrol). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2025 and the outcome determined using data as provided by the US Department of Treasury once data for September 2025 are first reported (Department of the Treasury). On the site, set the "Date Range (Record Date):" as appropriate and enter "Customs Duties" in the field under "Classification Description," and click "Download CSV File" to download the data. The monthly values can be found in columns E to P in the downloaded file, which are arranged by fiscal year (e.g., 2025 in the “Fiscal Year” column corresponds to columns E to P representing October 2024 to September 2025). As of the launch of this question, the Department of Treasury reported a total of $21,429,699,208.02, or $21.4297 billion in customs duties revenue in the third quarter of 2024. The data are also available in the US' Monthly Treasury Statements (see the "Customs Duty" row of "Table 7 Receipts and Outlays of the U.S. Government by Month") (Monthly Treasury Statement - Current, Monthly Treasury Statement - Previous).

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The question closed "At least $72 billion, but less than $90 billion" with a closing date of 1 October 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $20 billion 1%
At least $20 billion, but less than $30 billion 4%
At least $30 billion, but less than $42 billion 8%
At least $42 billion, but less than $56 billion 1%
At least $56 billion, but less than $72 billion 1%
At least $72 billion, but less than $90 billion 51%
At least $90 billion, but less than $110 billion 33%
At least $110 billion, but less than $132 billion 1%
At least $132 billion, but less than $156 billion 1%
At least $156 billion, but less than $182 billion 1%
At least $182 billion, but less than $210 billion 1%
At least $210 billion, but less than $240 billion 1%
$240 billion or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 19
Average for questions older than 6 months: 159
Number of Forecasts 118
Average for questions older than 6 months: 472
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.121069
2.
-0.119486
3.
-0.09568
4.
-0.078978
5.
-0.058097

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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