What will be the value of US treasury securities held by China as of December 2025?
Closing Jan 1, 2026 08:01AM (in 8 months)
As the trade policy fight between the US and China heats up, the latter's holding of the former's debt could be at play (Yahoo [Telegraph], Global Times China, Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2025 and the outcome determined using US Treasury Department "Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities" data once first released for December 2025, expected in February 2026 (Treasury International Capital (TIC) System). As of the launch of this question, the US Treasury Department reported that China held $759.0 billion of US Treasury securities in December 2024 (Treasury International Capital (TIC) System - Table 5, see "China, Mainland").
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week |
|---|---|---|---|
| Less than $175 billion | 1.00% | 0% | +0.50% |
| At least $175 billion, but less than $250 billion | 1.00% | 0% | +0.50% |
| At least $250 billion, but less than $325 billion | 1.60% | 0% | +0.50% |
| At least $325 billion, but less than $400 billion | 1.70% | 0% | +0.50% |
| At least $400 billion, but less than $475 billion | 1.90% | 0% | +0.20% |
| At least $475 billion, but less than $550 billion | 3.20% | -0.20% | +0.20% |
| At least $550 billion, but less than $625 billion | 14.20% | -1.70% | -4.80% |
| At least $625 billion, but less than $700 billion | 24.10% | -1.10% | -4.80% |
| At least $700 billion, but less than $775 billion | 35.70% | -0.30% | -1.00% |
| At least $775 billion, but less than $850 billion | 12.40% | +2.80% | +6.20% |
| At least $850 billion, but less than $925 billion | 2.10% | +0.50% | +1.50% |
| $925 billion or more | 1.10% | 0% | +0.50% |