Before 1 July 2018, will a date be set for a referendum on Northern Ireland's governance status?

Started Mar 21, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2018 06:59AM UTC

During the U.K. Brexit referendum, a majority of Northern Irish voted to remain in the EU (Newsweek). The United Kingdom's planned exit from the European Union, and Sinn Fein's strong showing in the recent election, has intensified the issue of Northern Ireland's governance status (Irish News, Financial Times). The 1998 Good Friday Agreement gives Northern Ireland the right to hold a referendum, or "border poll" on unification with Ireland, and some have floated the idea of an independence referendum (BBC). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
This question closed as "no" with an end date of 1 July 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0%
No 100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 319
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 1597
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters worse than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003478
2.
-0.003478
3.
-0.003473
4.
-0.003471
5.
-0.003467

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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