Will North Korea launch a land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) before 1 November 2017?

Started Apr 18, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 04, 2017 05:00PM UTC

North Korea's missile program is a cause of concern for mutiple actors in the region and beyond, particularly regarding the development of ICBM capabilities (38 North, BBC, WSJ, Popular Science, CNN, 38 North, NY Times). Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
On July 4th 2017, NK launched an ICBM (The Korea Herald, U.S. Department of State, Stratfor). This question was closed as "a) Yes" with an end date of July 4th 2017 See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 20.00%
No 80.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 224
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 735
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.182235
2.
-1.156181
3.
-1.149505
4.
-1.102786
5.
-1.094653

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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