The Monkey Cage asks

How many removals will U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement conduct in fiscal year 2017?

Started Apr 28, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 30, 2017 05:00PM UTC

During his campaign, President-elect Trump vowed to deport millions of unauthorized immigrants (USA Today, Donald J. Trump for President, Inc., Washington Post). U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) tracks removals for each fiscal year (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement); in the 2016 fiscal year, they conducted 240,255 (ICE). The government's 2017 fiscal year runs from 1 October 2016 through 30 September 2017. The question will be suspended on 30 September 2017 and closed when ICE releases its data, typically in December. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement conducted 226,119 removals in FY17 (U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement). This question closed as "Less than 250,000." See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 250,000 34%
Between 250,000 and 500,000, inclusive 46%
More than 500,000 but less than 1 million 17%
Between 1 million and 2 million, inclusive 3%
More than 2 million 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 347
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187
Number of Forecasts 922
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.252138
2.
-0.244038
3.
-0.239299
4.
-0.232701
5.
-0.230365

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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