How many countries will have a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility before 2018?

Started May 23, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2018 07:59AM UTC

For CENTCOM area of responsibility, visit: Centcom. Examples include, but are not limited to: The Telegraph, BBC, Aljazeera, Gulf News. Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help.
One country, Syria, had a manned, fixed-wing, military aircraft downed in the CENTCOM area of responsibility. This question closed as "1" with an end date of 1 January 2018. See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Question clarification
Issued on 11/14/17 04:12pm
As of 14 November, GJ has thoroughly reviewed open source media of multiple incidents. Good Judgment assesses one country, Syria, has had aircraft downed: Once in June 2017 (BBC, NY Post) and once in August 2017 (Reuters, TRT World, Syria Observatory for Human Rights). Please note our evaluation of the August 2017 downing considered the totality of reporting and is not based solely on allegations from the rebels. There were other incidents of alleged downing which lacked corroborating evidence and have not been included in the count.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
0 0%
1 99%
2 or 3 1%
4 or 5 0%
More than 5 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 118
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186
Number of Forecasts 617
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.144186
2.
-0.14134
3.
-0.140312
4.
-0.136792
5.
-0.129519

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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