The Economist and 
HFC ask
What percentage of the popular vote will the Alternative for Germany party win in Germany's next federal election?
Started
Jun 06, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 24, 2017 05:00PM UTC
Closed Sep 24, 2017 05:00PM UTC
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) won no seats in the Bundestag in 2013 (Spiegel, BBC). Popularity may be rising (Wall Street Journal, Reuters, Telegraph). Germany is scheduled to hold federal elections in 2017 (Deutsche Welle).
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The Alternative for Germany party won 12.6% of the vote. This question closed as “c) More than 10% but less than 15%” with an end date of 24 September 2017 (NY Times, BBC). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
The Alternative for Germany party won 12.6% of the vote. This question closed as “c) More than 10% but less than 15%” with an end date of 24 September 2017 (NY Times, BBC). See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 5% | 0% | |
| Between 5% and 10%, inclusive | 12% | |
| More than 10% but less than 15% | 88% | |
| 15% or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 238 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 949 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
