Good Judgment® Open | Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2016?

Started Oct 02, 2015 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2016 06:59AM UTC

Challenges

Polarization v. Prediction: Iran (2016)

Tags

Foreign Policy Security and Conflict

The Iranian nuclear deal established a Joint Commission to adjudicate disputes between the IAEA and Iran over access to undeclared nuclear facilities (Iran Watch). Recommended Questions How will Iran rank in the World Economic Forum’s 2016-2017 Global Competitiveness Index? Will the US or the UN impose any new sanctions on Iran before 18 October 2016? Will China conduct bilateral military exercises with either Iran or Saudi Arabia before 1 October 2016?

Forecast
Activity

Possible Answer	Correct?	Final Crowd Forecast
Yes		0%
No		100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters	377
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts	1292
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545

Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters	average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.

-0.037402

2.

-0.036555

3.

-0.036511

4.

-0.036181

5.

-0.03554

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time