Before 1 May 2016, will Britain set a date for a referendum on EU membership?
Started
Nov 17, 2015 06:00PM
Closed Feb 20, 2016 06:00PM (9 years ago)
Closed Feb 20, 2016 06:00PM (9 years ago)
Tags
Prime Minister Cameron has promised to hold a referendum on the UK's membership in the EU before the end of 2017 (The World in 2016, BBC 1, BBC 2).
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 85.00% | |
| No | 15.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 831 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 181 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 2219 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 528 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
Most Accurate
Relative Brier Score
Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time
- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Feb 2, 2016 6:38PM PST (18 days before close, question was 81% complete)