Good Judgment® Open | Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016?

Started Sep 1, 2015 08:53PM
Closed Feb 29, 2016 10:00PM (9 years ago)

Tags

Finance

Plummeting oil prices are threatening the country's main source of revenue, and runaway inflation is making it difficult for Venezuela and its state-owned oil and gas company to service its foreign debt (Financial Times, Bloomberg 1, Bloomberg 2). Recommended Questions Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016? Will Russia conduct a naval exercise in the Western Hemisphere with a Central or South American country before 1 July 2016? Will the government of Colombia and the FARC sign a final peace agreement before 1 May 2016?

Forecast
Activity

Possible Answer	Correct?	Final Crowd Forecast
Yes		0%
No		100.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters	280
Average for questions older than 6 months: 181
Number of Forecasts	1010
Average for questions older than 6 months: 529

Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters	average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.

-0.036211

2.

-0.03301

3.

-0.032097

4.

-0.031749

5.

-0.031425

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

- - - Correct answer became the crowd's highest probability answer - Sep 1, 2015 6:48PM PDT (181 days before close, question was 0% complete)