Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?

Started Dec 08, 2015 06:22PM UTC
Closed Mar 30, 2016 01:41PM UTC

After November's parliamentary elections, the opposition National League for Democracy is on track to form the next government once parliament is seated in January 2016, but longstanding tensions between the NLD and Myanmar's military leaders could derail the process (NYTimes, The Diplomat, Foreign Policy, Irrawaddy). 3/2/16: Per GJI's time policy, the deadline for this question is 31 March at 11:59:59 Pacific time, which will be 1 April at 1:29:59 pm in Myanmar. Because 1:29 is a somewhat artificial deadline and we want forecasters to focus on the NLD taking office, not the exact timing during the day, we will treat any transition on 1 April (Myanmar time) as counting towards this resolution. Recommended Question Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Myanmar before 1 January 2017?
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 99.00%
No 1.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 309
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189
Number of Forecasts 969
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.014995
2.
-0.013888
3.
-0.013888
4.
-0.012855
5.
-0.012772

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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