Will a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD) take office as president of Myanmar before April 2016?
Started
Dec 08, 2015 06:22PM UTC
Closed Mar 30, 2016 01:41PM UTC
Closed Mar 30, 2016 01:41PM UTC
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After November's parliamentary elections, the opposition National League for Democracy is on track to form the next government once parliament is seated in January 2016, but longstanding tensions between the NLD and Myanmar's military leaders could derail the process (NYTimes, The Diplomat, Foreign Policy, Irrawaddy).
3/2/16: Per GJI's time policy, the deadline for this question is 31 March at 11:59:59 Pacific time, which will be 1 April at 1:29:59 pm in Myanmar. Because 1:29 is a somewhat artificial deadline and we want forecasters to focus on the NLD taking office, not the exact timing during the day, we will treat any transition on 1 April (Myanmar time) as counting towards this resolution.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 99.00% | |
No | 1.00% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
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Number of Forecasters | 309 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 969 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
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Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |