Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections?

Started Dec 15, 2015 06:00PM
Closed Apr 29, 2016 09:00PM (9 years ago)

Iranian conservatives include both traditional and hardline camps (Washington Post). Hardliners have held most of the seats in Iran's parliament, the Majles, since 2004, when they overturned a reformist majority (Guardian, Washington Post, Iran primer). The election is scheduled for 25 February 2016.
Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 85.00%
No 15.00%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 536
Average for questions older than 6 months: 181
Number of Forecasts 1744
Average for questions older than 6 months: 528
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-1.392022
2.
-1.344632
3.
-1.344375
4.
-1.328096
5.
-1.225257

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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