Will the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) invade Lebanon with tanks and/or armored vehicles before 13 December 2023?
Closed Dec 13, 2023 08:01AM UTC
As Israel is fighting Hamas and others in Gaza, there are fears that conflict could spread to include Lebanon, specifically Iran-backed Hezbollah (BBC, CNN, US News & World Report). For the purposes of this question, the IDF will be deemed to have invaded Lebanon if its forces, including ten or more tanks and/or armored vehicles, cross the "Blue Line" into Lebanon and remain in Lebanon for more than 36 hours (UN Interim Force in Lebanon, Britannica - Armoured Vehicle). Whether the IDF has invaded Lebanon will be determined using credible open-source media reporting. The question will close retroactively as of the beginning of the IDF invasion of Lebanon.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 13 December 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 3% | |
No | 97% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 148 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
Number of Forecasts | 517 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |