The Economist asks:
How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win in the next Indian general election?
Closed Apr 19, 2024 07:01AM UTC
The next general election for the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's bicameral parliament, is scheduled for phases in the spring of 2024 (Economist, US News & World Report). Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its NDA electoral alliance hoping to extend their majority for another term, though it faces challenges ahead (AP, Times of India). The suspend date will be changed to the day before polls are scheduled to close in the first phase of voting once officially set, expected between April and May 2024 (e.g., 2019 Al Jazeera). In the event of a split within the NDA, the electoral alliance including the BJP will be considered the successor to the NDA.
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The question closed "Between 272 and 298" with a closing date of 1 June 2024.
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Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
271 or fewer | 3% | |
Between 272 and 298 | 10% | |
Between 299 and 325 | 22% | |
Between 326 and 352 | 27% | |
353 or more | 38% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 239 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 196 | |
Number of Forecasts | 579 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 560 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |