What will be the gigawatts (GW) of photovoltaic (PV) electrical capacity installed in the world in 2023, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)?
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Solar energy generation is seen as key for the general move away from fossil fuels (Nature, CNET). The question will be suspended on 29 February 2024 and the outcome determined using installed capacity data (for the year, not cumulative) as reported by the IEA in its 2024 Snapshot of Global PV Markets, expected in early spring of 2024 (IEA PV Power Systems Programme - Snapshot Reports). In 2022, 240 GW of PV electrical capacity was installed around the world (IEA - Snapshot of Global PV Markets 2023, see Figure 1, ShopSolar - Gigawatt definition).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between 360 GW and 420 GW, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 March 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 240 GW | 0% | |
| Between 240 GW and 300 GW, inclusive | 2% | |
| More than 300 GW but less than 360 GW | 20% | |
| Between 360 GW and 420 GW, inclusive | 70% | |
| More than 420 GW | 8% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 53 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 189 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 197 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 546 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
