Will SpaceX's next Starship orbital flight test be launched successfully before 1 March 2024?
Started
Dec 29, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Mar 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Tags
SpaceX is preparing to launch its next orbital flight test but is still awaiting a license from the FAA in order to proceed as of 28 December 2023 (Ars Technica, Space.com). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful first stage separation (Space.com).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 March 2024.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | |
No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 75 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 187 | |
Number of Forecasts | 270 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 542 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |