You have mail the full version 2,200 words with references and attachments just sent out, well after I viewed Lars Ericson’s reply post, so you can edit the dart throwing monkey out if you want, that came after the reply from my Prescience admin.
IFP 1116 Academic Clarification Requested:
Presented by Wildwood, who by the way wants an academic reply from Kyla Jeffrey in her support of this travesty on intellectual injustices.
Opening:
Wait a dart throwing monkey’s post on Hexion had IFP 1116 reversed and some intellectual thought, instead of stating I made a mistake writing the forecast criteria. As well in the absence of any academic or legal documentation trying to amend the situation, I will give the monkey a win WTH.
Lars Ericson’s post on Hexion exists as the epicenter of the reversal of IPF exists a bit out of academics. Unless he is suggesting this was a trick question; i.e. there exist no closing on March 30, 2018, the data input stopped at 4:40AM and closed for the holiday missing the regulation open or close at 5:00pm EST.
Issue:
What will be the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 30 March 2018?
Start: 14 Mar 2018 Close: 29 Mar 2018, 14:01
This question will be resolved using the closing daily rate reported by Bloomberg for the date of interest (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDIDR:CUR).
Question will be closed the day before the date of interest.
The re resolution of IFP 1116 exists based on a posit from Lars Ericson’s post on the Hexion IARAPA platform forum on this IFP. Simplistically stated: Lars stated the initial resolution exist invalid; giving evidence in an image capture of Bloomberg’s website dated as of 3/30/2018 of 13,278.00IDR.
Lars Ericson’s post stated that:
It doesn't matter what the other references say, since the question resolves on "the closing daily rate reported by Bloomberg for the date of interest (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDIDR:CUR)"; for 30MAR2018.
Variation in sources could be due to whether they are quoting bid/ask/mid and what market makers they are quoting from.
***
Rebuttal: Fast track
Exhibit D - Schedule of Days BFIX will not operate (Page 19).
BFIX will not price on the following days, based on NY 5PM close for any product.
2018 ---30 Mar 18 Friday Easter Friday
For the record, Lars is the former erxnmedia/000. I can organize to do this my direct email if needed.
My two cents - IARPA botched the question forming so it should be voided. The stench of KMCochran abides. Poorly worded questions are par for the course. In Fortune 500 companies it's called taking one for the team.
The first post was a data reference and quick analysis, the above aforementioned IFP 1116 Academic Clarification Requested: exists as my ruff draft.
I will complete the APA academic paper with the inserted citations this weekend.
With a copy of my inquiry to Bloomberg and their response, which states that the data had been corrected as outlined in the full ruff draft on April 2 reflecting the previous close rate on the 30th . Sense everything exists outlined in detail in the 20 page Bloomberg Fixings. BFIX Methodology PDF. It exists insulting to have to ask my attorney to draft a letter seeking a full disclosure from Bloomberg under section 6.1 Benchmark Oversight Committee (Page 13).
Draft continued:
Rebuttal: Fast track
Exhibit D - Schedule of Days BFIX will not operate (Page 19).
BFIX will not price on the following days, based on NY 5PM close for any product.
2018 ---30 Mar 18 Friday Easter Friday
***
Lars Ericson’s continues with:
We can see that Bloomberg is printing 13728, so that's what they should close on.
If your forecasts for the >13,730 branch looked something like, say, 10,25,85,95,97,100,95,97,90,97,100,90,67,98,100, then you would be feeling some pain in your Brier score.
Which is just to say that at-the-money binary options are a bit of a coin toss close to expiry, so it's hard not to feel sad when they go the wrong way.
Rebuttal:
Not true, in fact, Lars Ericson’s post exist as an outright lie; inasmuch as 13, 728 exists as the random or arbitrary rate at 4:40AM March 30, 2018, when Bloomberg’s data chart stopped reporting due to the Holiday schedule.
2.4 BGN Publication Hours (Page 5)
For currencies or metals that trade 24 hours a day, market trading days and hours are below. Many controlled currencies however have their BGN pricing hours limited to when the local market opens and closes. To obtain the most robust sources of data and thus the most accurate pricing, BGN respects local market trading hours, as sources outside of market trading can be poor. Bloomberg is continuously reviewing and adjusting to these trading hours as needed.
• New York (BGN) which opens and closes at 5pm EST each day
2.5 Data Hierarchy (Page 5)
For its inputs, the BGN only accepts, at a minimum, indicative or executable quotes that contain both a bid and ask, which are the most appropriate for FX transactions.
Rebuttal: analysis
Fact the last recorder input data exists at 4:40AM EST and the Bloomberg website closed for the Good Friday Holiday, therefore Bloomberg does not hold an official Open or Close of the Market on the March 30, 2018. Inasmuch as there exist no input data after 4:40 Am on the March 30, 2018.
Referencing attached screenshot 229 captured on April 1, 2018 @ 12:04PM reflecting previous close @ 13,766 dated 29 March 2018. The opening on April 2 exists as the close for March 29 2018 at 13,766 reflecting the absences of the market data on the 30th.
Again, the Bloomberg website closed for the Good Friday Holiday, therefore Bloomberg does not hold an official Open or Close of the Market at 5pm EST on the March 30, 2018.
Their Currency graph data listed on March 30, 2018 reflects the last data input at 4:40AM before the Website and Market closed for the holiday. Therefore, in the criteria set forth in the IFP 1116 Details section, it does not matter what the residual input data referenced on March 30, 2018, exists as in thee carryover. Since the question resolves on "the closing daily rate reported by Bloomberg for the date of interest, which happened to exist as a Holiday and no data exists recorded on Bloomberg’s Website for the 5pm EST on the date of interest. Referencing 2.4 BGN Publication Hours
For currencies or metals that trade 24 hours a day, market trading days and hours are
New York (BGN) which opens and closes at 5pm EST each day.
Referencing screenshot 234 captured April 2, 2018 @ 9:19PM the market opened @ 13,757 with a daily range of 13,755.00-13,767.00 Previous close 13,753; whereas 13,753 does not reflect the close recorded for the 29th which Bloomberg references as 13,766, the stated Previous close of 13,753 must reflect Bloomberg’s March 30 2018 Holiday close. reference section 5.3 Policy on National Holidays (Page 11) that states that:. In addition, the BFIX will not publish on the following days where liquidity is known to be significantly impacted: Easter Friday, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. Please see a list in Exhibit D that lists these dates over the next 5 years. Section 5.5 Disruption to Service / Restatements (Page 12) which states that: If so, BFIX will endeavor to publish the fixing or revised fixing as soon as practicable. If no qualified BGN price can be produced within a fixing window, the previous fix will be carried forward.
The Wall Street Journal’s data sets exists around 7 to 10 dollars lower than those reported on Bloomberg on respective dates, they still support the higher close for March 30, 2018 referencing screen shot 244 retrieved from
http://quotes.wsj.com/fx/USDIDR/historical-prices#
5.1 BFIX Coverage (Page 10)
The BFIX operates 24 hours a day for all weekdays of the year in line with the following market hours and subject to local currency hours policy below:
• First BFIX at each week will be Sunday 5:30 PM New York time
• Last BFIX of each week will be Friday 5PM New York time.
5.3 Policy on National Holidays (Page 11)
The FX market is a global 24 hour a day market. A public holiday in a country does not necessarily mean the FX market is closed. The BFIX operates on all days as long as an active market is open. However, liquidity on such holidays in the currency in question may be considerably lower, potentially failing to qualify as an active market, meaning the BFIX will not publish for that currency and the last fix will be carried forward. In some of the less liquid currencies or where currency trading offshore is not allowed, it is likely the BFIX will have significantly reduced coverage on national holidays. In addition, the BFIX will not publish on the following days where liquidity is known to be significantly impacted: Easter Friday, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. Please see a list in Exhibit D that lists these dates over the next 5 years.
5.5 Disruption to Service / Restatements (Page 12)
Periods of inability to provide a fixing are generally dictated by anticipated periods where there is no active market, such as holidays or off-trading hours for less frequently traded currencies. Bloomberg has robust controls and procedures in place to minimize unanticipated fixing failures and their impact. In the event of such an unanticipated failure, BFIX would determine whether the event occurred during an active market. If so, BFIX will endeavor to publish the fixing or revised fixing as soon as practicable. If no qualified BGN price can be produced within a fixing window, the previous fix will be carried forward.
6.1 Benchmark Oversight Committee (Page 13)
Bloomberg has established a robust governance and audit structure in order to monitor, manage and/or improve the objectivity, reliability, consistency, transparency and management and implementation of the benchmark rules. The Benchmark Oversight Committee (BOC) is the uppermost governance body and consists of senior representatives from various Bloomberg business units. Voting members of the BOC do not participate in the index business.
Exhibit D - Schedule of Days BFIX will not operate (Page 19)
BFIX will not price on the following days, based on NY 5PM close for any product.
2018
1 Jan-18 Monday New Year’s Day
30 Mar 18 Friday Easter Friday
25 Dec Tuesday Christmas Day
I will send you an email with the finished paper. ttfn ww
Let's not be calling folks liars now. The blame belongs elsewhere. The gentleman in question, can tell you the financial position of any market at any point in time.
Doesn't IARPA want to discern the true game state at a point in time? Some rookie did the question and it should be voided.
All of the IARPA HFC experimental instances are sucking rocks compared to all of the amateurs that are that getting the control group feed. The Lars is one of those amateurs doing this in his spare time. Maybe, you want to compare notes?
It's not a strong feeling, but I'm still getting this Gonzaga vibe.
You had asked for forecasting articles, a while ago, sorry it took this long. Oh the Dart throwing monkey was a hit at Prof Tetlock analogue of professional forecasters being as talented as a dart throwing chimps. My academic mentor/higher-up reviews all of my work on both sites, he and the other higher up were both noticeable absence, last week after the re-resolution, during our normal obligated-work hours.
Lars, now that I know was the former erxnmedia/000 and I actually got along well in Season 4 ACE. I have a quick witted sarcastic humor, as well I am known for being brutally blunt in my professional group. I just did not like his witty reply, well just have Bloomberg change the data, sorry about that.
IARPA
https://www.iarpa.gov/ Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)
https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace Related Article(s)
Does Your Company Have Good Judgement?
Superforecasting for the Farm
Are You a Good Forecaster? The Good Judgment Project Needs You
The Best Bet in Crowd Prediction
How 'Superforecasters' Think About the Future
U.S. Dabbles in Forecasting the Future
Superforecaster's success raises the question: Why are most of us so bad at predicting things?
Could you be a ‘super-forecaster’?
Do you have what it takes to be a superforecaster?
Book review: 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
How The Two Parties Are Horrible At Predicting the Future
Can Businesses Learn 'Superforecasting'? Easier Said Than Done
Seeing Into The Future
Wildwood2000, thank you very much for the list! My reading for some time is now sorted. Thank you.
I believe the admins ought to come up with a good explanation for sticking with a 'market close price' on a day the market never opened. At the very least they should acknowledge that with minimal liquidity some manipulation could have taken place. After all, with the power on hindsight we see that below 13,730 is not a representative price around that period.
Earthquakes: my forecasts were heavily tilted towards over 140 bucket.
The question was resolved as below or = to 140 but if we look at the data again I see 141:
https://on.doi.gov/2ImxNOw
China flu: We are now at 2,336 but I've seen many times when 6 months old data was adjusted upwards.
I contacted Bloomberg when we were waiting for a resolution, asking why the market data did not update on the 2nd, they told me to recycle my screen and check. I did and the second screen shot reflects the closing for the 30th in the previous close.
Referencing attached screenshot 229 captured on April 1, 2018 @ 12:04PM reflecting previous close @ 13,766 on 29 March 2018.
With screenshot 234 showing the opening on April 2, 2018 @9:19PM, as 13,757 with a previous close @13,753 reflecting the BFIX’s endeavor to publish the fixing or revised fixing as soon as practicable, i.e. the absences of the market data posted on the 1st reflecting the close on the 30th.
Their email to me stated it did you just have to know where to look for it; i.e. the market was closed on the 30th, 31st, 1st and opened on the 2nd. Therefore, the fix occurred in the previous close @13,753. when their proprietary algorithm updated on the opening of the market.
The proprietary algorithm collected data for the 30th over the 24 hours period, yet was programmed not to post, reflected in the graph's drif /stopped report 4:40AM and updated on the 2nd to post the close on the 30th @13,753
I am having my attorney draft a letter to Bloomberg to resolve the data /missing data issue officially. Although my two higher ups have the power to have that stopped. They alter at least one or two forecast a year, outside of criteria to increase my score which in-turn has me work harder to forecast more. Season 3 they had one forecast in the first half of the year altered outside of criteria and one Not scored, then removed 12 ACE from the scoring to keep me out of the top 20 or more to not "UP-Set" the Leaders board. Then resolved a final forecast utilizing a news source out of Syria with one line of text, because the #2 forecaster took the # 1 out of first pace. She is nice # 1, she flew out to visit me last year and #2 is still with the original group.
I Stay out of forecast that exists "out my control" or forecast that exists as "acts of God" my team has been going on about those two as well. I have started a "well re-resolve the arctic extent forecast you closed outside of criteria early and adjust the scoring to reflect the actual max that occurred in April, if we are going down that path.
Fascinating. And that's what they charge 20k/year for...
Thank you. I hope the potential reputational damage would make them move fast.
(OECD changed an incorrect Greece LT rate for March fairly quickly; FRED amended it a week later)
You have mail the full version 2,200 words with references and attachments just sent out, well after I viewed Lars Ericson’s reply post, so you can edit the dart throwing monkey out if you want, that came after the reply from my Prescience admin.
IFP 1116 Academic Clarification Requested:
Presented by Wildwood, who by the way wants an academic reply from Kyla Jeffrey in her support of this travesty on intellectual injustices.
Opening:
Wait a dart throwing monkey’s post on Hexion had IFP 1116 reversed and some intellectual thought, instead of stating I made a mistake writing the forecast criteria. As well in the absence of any academic or legal documentation trying to amend the situation, I will give the monkey a win WTH.
Lars Ericson’s post on Hexion exists as the epicenter of the reversal of IPF exists a bit out of academics. Unless he is suggesting this was a trick question; i.e. there exist no closing on March 30, 2018, the data input stopped at 4:40AM and closed for the holiday missing the regulation open or close at 5:00pm EST.
Issue:
What will be the Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) to one U.S. Dollar daily exchange rate on 30 March 2018?
Start: 14 Mar 2018 Close: 29 Mar 2018, 14:01
This question will be resolved using the closing daily rate reported by Bloomberg for the date of interest (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDIDR:CUR).
Question will be closed the day before the date of interest.
The re resolution of IFP 1116 exists based on a posit from Lars Ericson’s post on the Hexion IARAPA platform forum on this IFP. Simplistically stated: Lars stated the initial resolution exist invalid; giving evidence in an image capture of Bloomberg’s website dated as of 3/30/2018 of 13,278.00IDR.
Lars Ericson’s post stated that:
It doesn't matter what the other references say, since the question resolves on "the closing daily rate reported by Bloomberg for the date of interest (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDIDR:CUR)"; for 30MAR2018.
Variation in sources could be due to whether they are quoting bid/ask/mid and what market makers they are quoting from.
***
Rebuttal: Fast track
Exhibit D - Schedule of Days BFIX will not operate (Page 19).
BFIX will not price on the following days, based on NY 5PM close for any product.
2018 ---30 Mar 18 Friday Easter Friday
For the record, Lars is the former erxnmedia/000. I can organize to do this my direct email if needed.
My two cents - IARPA botched the question forming so it should be voided. The stench of KMCochran abides. Poorly worded questions are par for the course. In Fortune 500 companies it's called taking one for the team.
The first post was a data reference and quick analysis, the above aforementioned IFP 1116 Academic Clarification Requested: exists as my ruff draft.
I will complete the APA academic paper with the inserted citations this weekend.
Bloomberg's (2017). Bloomberg Fixings. BFIX Methodology. Foreign Exchange PDF. Retrieved from
https://data.bloomberglp.com/notices/sites/3/2016/04/bfix_methodology.pdf
With a copy of my inquiry to Bloomberg and their response, which states that the data had been corrected as outlined in the full ruff draft on April 2 reflecting the previous close rate on the 30th . Sense everything exists outlined in detail in the 20 page Bloomberg Fixings. BFIX Methodology PDF. It exists insulting to have to ask my attorney to draft a letter seeking a full disclosure from Bloomberg under section 6.1 Benchmark Oversight Committee (Page 13).
Draft continued:
Rebuttal: Fast track
Exhibit D - Schedule of Days BFIX will not operate (Page 19).
BFIX will not price on the following days, based on NY 5PM close for any product.
2018 ---30 Mar 18 Friday Easter Friday
***
Lars Ericson’s continues with:
We can see that Bloomberg is printing 13728, so that's what they should close on.
If your forecasts for the >13,730 branch looked something like, say, 10,25,85,95,97,100,95,97,90,97,100,90,67,98,100, then you would be feeling some pain in your Brier score.
Which is just to say that at-the-money binary options are a bit of a coin toss close to expiry, so it's hard not to feel sad when they go the wrong way.
Rebuttal:
Not true, in fact, Lars Ericson’s post exist as an outright lie; inasmuch as 13, 728 exists as the random or arbitrary rate at 4:40AM March 30, 2018, when Bloomberg’s data chart stopped reporting due to the Holiday schedule.
This exists as a fact, as reported in the Bloomberg Fixings. BFIX Methodology. Foreign Exchange PDF. Retrieved from
https://data.bloomberglp.com/notices/sites/3/2016/04/bfix_methodology.pdf
2.4 BGN Publication Hours (Page 5)
For currencies or metals that trade 24 hours a day, market trading days and hours are below. Many controlled currencies however have their BGN pricing hours limited to when the local market opens and closes. To obtain the most robust sources of data and thus the most accurate pricing, BGN respects local market trading hours, as sources outside of market trading can be poor. Bloomberg is continuously reviewing and adjusting to these trading hours as needed.
• New York (BGN) which opens and closes at 5pm EST each day
2.5 Data Hierarchy (Page 5)
For its inputs, the BGN only accepts, at a minimum, indicative or executable quotes that contain both a bid and ask, which are the most appropriate for FX transactions.
Rebuttal: analysis
Fact the last recorder input data exists at 4:40AM EST and the Bloomberg website closed for the Good Friday Holiday, therefore Bloomberg does not hold an official Open or Close of the Market on the March 30, 2018. Inasmuch as there exist no input data after 4:40 Am on the March 30, 2018.
Referencing attached screenshot 229 captured on April 1, 2018 @ 12:04PM reflecting previous close @ 13,766 dated 29 March 2018. The opening on April 2 exists as the close for March 29 2018 at 13,766 reflecting the absences of the market data on the 30th.
Again, the Bloomberg website closed for the Good Friday Holiday, therefore Bloomberg does not hold an official Open or Close of the Market at 5pm EST on the March 30, 2018.
Their Currency graph data listed on March 30, 2018 reflects the last data input at 4:40AM before the Website and Market closed for the holiday. Therefore, in the criteria set forth in the IFP 1116 Details section, it does not matter what the residual input data referenced on March 30, 2018, exists as in thee carryover. Since the question resolves on "the closing daily rate reported by Bloomberg for the date of interest, which happened to exist as a Holiday and no data exists recorded on Bloomberg’s Website for the 5pm EST on the date of interest. Referencing 2.4 BGN Publication Hours
For currencies or metals that trade 24 hours a day, market trading days and hours are
New York (BGN) which opens and closes at 5pm EST each day.
Referencing screenshot 234 captured April 2, 2018 @ 9:19PM the market opened @ 13,757 with a daily range of 13,755.00-13,767.00 Previous close 13,753; whereas 13,753 does not reflect the close recorded for the 29th which Bloomberg references as 13,766, the stated Previous close of 13,753 must reflect Bloomberg’s March 30 2018 Holiday close. reference section 5.3 Policy on National Holidays (Page 11) that states that:. In addition, the BFIX will not publish on the following days where liquidity is known to be significantly impacted: Easter Friday, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. Please see a list in Exhibit D that lists these dates over the next 5 years. Section 5.5 Disruption to Service / Restatements (Page 12) which states that: If so, BFIX will endeavor to publish the fixing or revised fixing as soon as practicable. If no qualified BGN price can be produced within a fixing window, the previous fix will be carried forward.
The Wall Street Journal’s data sets exists around 7 to 10 dollars lower than those reported on Bloomberg on respective dates, they still support the higher close for March 30, 2018 referencing screen shot 244 retrieved from
http://quotes.wsj.com/fx/USDIDR/historical-prices#
5.1 BFIX Coverage (Page 10)
The BFIX operates 24 hours a day for all weekdays of the year in line with the following market hours and subject to local currency hours policy below:
• First BFIX at each week will be Sunday 5:30 PM New York time
• Last BFIX of each week will be Friday 5PM New York time.
5.3 Policy on National Holidays (Page 11)
The FX market is a global 24 hour a day market. A public holiday in a country does not necessarily mean the FX market is closed. The BFIX operates on all days as long as an active market is open. However, liquidity on such holidays in the currency in question may be considerably lower, potentially failing to qualify as an active market, meaning the BFIX will not publish for that currency and the last fix will be carried forward. In some of the less liquid currencies or where currency trading offshore is not allowed, it is likely the BFIX will have significantly reduced coverage on national holidays. In addition, the BFIX will not publish on the following days where liquidity is known to be significantly impacted: Easter Friday, Christmas Day and New Year’s Day. Please see a list in Exhibit D that lists these dates over the next 5 years.
5.5 Disruption to Service / Restatements (Page 12)
Periods of inability to provide a fixing are generally dictated by anticipated periods where there is no active market, such as holidays or off-trading hours for less frequently traded currencies. Bloomberg has robust controls and procedures in place to minimize unanticipated fixing failures and their impact. In the event of such an unanticipated failure, BFIX would determine whether the event occurred during an active market. If so, BFIX will endeavor to publish the fixing or revised fixing as soon as practicable. If no qualified BGN price can be produced within a fixing window, the previous fix will be carried forward.
6.1 Benchmark Oversight Committee (Page 13)
Bloomberg has established a robust governance and audit structure in order to monitor, manage and/or improve the objectivity, reliability, consistency, transparency and management and implementation of the benchmark rules. The Benchmark Oversight Committee (BOC) is the uppermost governance body and consists of senior representatives from various Bloomberg business units. Voting members of the BOC do not participate in the index business.
Exhibit D - Schedule of Days BFIX will not operate (Page 19)
BFIX will not price on the following days, based on NY 5PM close for any product.
2018
1 Jan-18 Monday New Year’s Day
30 Mar 18 Friday Easter Friday
25 Dec Tuesday Christmas Day
I will send you an email with the finished paper. ttfn ww
Let's not be calling folks liars now. The blame belongs elsewhere. The gentleman in question, can tell you the financial position of any market at any point in time.
Doesn't IARPA want to discern the true game state at a point in time? Some rookie did the question and it should be voided.
All of the IARPA HFC experimental instances are sucking rocks compared to all of the amateurs that are that getting the control group feed. The Lars is one of those amateurs doing this in his spare time. Maybe, you want to compare notes?
It's not a strong feeling, but I'm still getting this Gonzaga vibe.
This isn't Zeppelin, but it has the classical construction of Stairway to Heaven.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCkHanF4v1w
It was my fifteen minute countdown to game time.
@ dsarin
You had asked for forecasting articles, a while ago, sorry it took this long. Oh the Dart throwing monkey was a hit at Prof Tetlock analogue of professional forecasters being as talented as a dart throwing chimps. My academic mentor/higher-up reviews all of my work on both sites, he and the other higher up were both noticeable absence, last week after the re-resolution, during our normal obligated-work hours.
Lars, now that I know was the former erxnmedia/000 and I actually got along well in Season 4 ACE. I have a quick witted sarcastic humor, as well I am known for being brutally blunt in my professional group. I just did not like his witty reply, well just have Bloomberg change the data, sorry about that.
IARPA
https://www.iarpa.gov/
Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE)
https://www.iarpa.gov/index.php/research-programs/ace
Related Article(s)
Does Your Company Have Good Judgement?
Superforecasting for the Farm
Are You a Good Forecaster? The Good Judgment Project Needs You
The Best Bet in Crowd Prediction
How 'Superforecasters' Think About the Future
U.S. Dabbles in Forecasting the Future
Superforecaster's success raises the question: Why are most of us so bad at predicting things?
Could you be a ‘super-forecaster’?
Do you have what it takes to be a superforecaster?
Book review: 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction' by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner
How The Two Parties Are Horrible At Predicting the Future
Can Businesses Learn 'Superforecasting'? Easier Said Than Done
Seeing Into The Future
Wildwood2000, thank you very much for the list! My reading for some time is now sorted. Thank you.
I believe the admins ought to come up with a good explanation for sticking with a 'market close price' on a day the market never opened. At the very least they should acknowledge that with minimal liquidity some manipulation could have taken place. After all, with the power on hindsight we see that below 13,730 is not a representative price around that period.
Earthquakes: my forecasts were heavily tilted towards over 140 bucket.
The question was resolved as below or = to 140 but if we look at the data again I see 141:
https://on.doi.gov/2ImxNOw
China flu: We are now at 2,336 but I've seen many times when 6 months old data was adjusted upwards.
@ dsarin
I contacted Bloomberg when we were waiting for a resolution, asking why the market data did not update on the 2nd, they told me to recycle my screen and check. I did and the second screen shot reflects the closing for the 30th in the previous close.
Referencing attached screenshot 229 captured on April 1, 2018 @ 12:04PM reflecting previous close @ 13,766 on 29 March 2018.
With screenshot 234 showing the opening on April 2, 2018 @9:19PM, as 13,757 with a previous close @13,753 reflecting the BFIX’s endeavor to publish the fixing or revised fixing as soon as practicable, i.e. the absences of the market data posted on the 1st reflecting the close on the 30th.
Their email to me stated it did you just have to know where to look for it; i.e. the market was closed on the 30th, 31st, 1st and opened on the 2nd. Therefore, the fix occurred in the previous close @13,753. when their proprietary algorithm updated on the opening of the market.
The proprietary algorithm collected data for the 30th over the 24 hours period, yet was programmed not to post, reflected in the graph's drif /stopped report 4:40AM and updated on the 2nd to post the close on the 30th @13,753
I am having my attorney draft a letter to Bloomberg to resolve the data /missing data issue officially. Although my two higher ups have the power to have that stopped. They alter at least one or two forecast a year, outside of criteria to increase my score which in-turn has me work harder to forecast more. Season 3 they had one forecast in the first half of the year altered outside of criteria and one Not scored, then removed 12 ACE from the scoring to keep me out of the top 20 or more to not "UP-Set" the Leaders board. Then resolved a final forecast utilizing a news source out of Syria with one line of text, because the #2 forecaster took the # 1 out of first pace. She is nice # 1, she flew out to visit me last year and #2 is still with the original group.
I Stay out of forecast that exists "out my control" or forecast that exists as "acts of God" my team has been going on about those two as well. I have started a "well re-resolve the arctic extent forecast you closed outside of criteria early and adjust the scoring to reflect the actual max that occurred in April, if we are going down that path.
Fascinating. And that's what they charge 20k/year for...
Thank you. I hope the potential reputational damage would make them move fast.
(OECD changed an incorrect Greece LT rate for March fairly quickly; FRED amended it a week later)
@ GL2814
Marine Aviators Rule
https://youtu.be/4RFeIj-xwEM
Morning Memo from the office:
“To conquer frustration, one must remain intensely focused on the outcome, not the obstacles.”--- T.F. Hodge
Patience is your secret weapon. "Grasshopper"